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Iran leadership change by April 30?

Closes in 3 days$299k 24hOpen

Implied probability

2%YES
Yes 2¢No 98¢

Probability over time

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Pool depth

not initialized
YES2¢
Pool: $0.00
NO98¢
Pool: $0.00

Implied price = pool share. Winners split the total pot pro-rata to stake when the market resolves, minus a 2% protocol fee.

Discussion(0)

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Closes in 3 days

$USDC
To win$0.00
Implied probability2%

On-chain escrow · 2% protocol fee · Min 1 USDC