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Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Closes next month$80k 24hOpen

Implied probability

35%YES
Yes 35¢No 65¢

Probability over time

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pool depth

not initialized
YES35¢
Pool: $0.00
NO65¢
Pool: $0.00

Implied price = pool share. Winners split the total pot pro-rata to stake when the market resolves, minus a 2% protocol fee.

Discussion(0)

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Closes next month

$USDC
To win$0.00
Implied probability35%

On-chain escrow · 2% protocol fee · Min 1 USDC