Economy
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?
Closes in 2 months$2.1k 24hOpen
Implied probability
19%YES
Yes 19¢No 81¢
Probability over time
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pool depth
not initializedYES19¢
Pool: $0.00
NO81¢
Pool: $0.00
Implied price = pool share. Winners split the total pot pro-rata to stake when the market resolves, minus a 2% protocol fee.