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News

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Closes in 7 months$1.4k 24hOpen

Implied probability

14%YES
Yes 14¢No 86¢

Probability over time

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pool depth

not initialized
YES14¢
Pool: $0.00
NO86¢
Pool: $0.00

Implied price = pool share. Winners split the total pot pro-rata to stake when the market resolves, minus a 2% protocol fee.

Discussion(0)

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Closes in 7 months

$USDC
To win$0.00
Implied probability14%

On-chain escrow · 2% protocol fee · Min 1 USDC