Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the popular vote in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election by 10-13%?

Resolution criteria

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question. If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

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