Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Closes in 8 months$378k 24hOpen
Implied probability
34%YES
Yes 34¢No 66¢
Probability over time
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Pool depth
not initializedYES34¢
Pool: $0.00
NO66¢
Pool: $0.00
Implied price = pool share. Winners split the total pot pro-rata to stake when the market resolves, minus a 2% protocol fee.